The average price decline of dram has largely stagnated this quarter, according to analyst firm TrendForce. DDR5 memory in particular would only become 0 to 5 percent cheaper in the coming months. The turnaround would take place in 2024.
In the third quarter of 2023, DDR4 memory is estimated to become 3 to 8 percent cheaper, looking at average prices over the entire quarter. PC, GPU and server DDR5 memory are estimated to become only 0 to 5 percent cheaper over the same period.
That has according to TrendForce has to do with two factors. Many major manufacturers have adjusted production numbers downwards in recent months because there has been a production surplus for a long time. The excessive supply and relatively low demand for DDR4 and DDR5 modules caused a continued decline in memory prices.
In addition, the agency expects greater demand for memory in various sectors in the coming months. For example, a ‘traditional high season’ for smartphones is expected to arrive later this year and the video card market would also get a boost this quarter. Both the demand for mobile memory and the demand for VRAM should therefore increase in the coming months.
While the supply of new memory is decreasing slightly due to adjustments by manufacturers, demand should increase somewhat in the near future. Because many of the purchases for the third quarter of 2023 have already been made, manufacturers would not be able to ask significantly higher prices despite these changes.