Emergency hospital crowds can be predicted with website visit

Swedish scientists have found a link between visiting a medical aid website and the number of people who subsequently visit the emergency room. The calculation model can be used to predict the crowds in the hospital.

The study was conducted by researchers from the Karolinska Institutet in Stockholm. They looked at whether emergency room pressures in Swedish hospitals could be predicted based on the numbers of visitors to the Stockholm Health Care Guide website. This site was created to provide people with medical information. The scientists hypothesized that people first look up information before visiting the hospital’s emergency department.

To test their hypothesis, a statistical model was created and applied to a dataset of website visits and pressures on emergency departments of participating hospitals in Sweden. In a later phase, the mathematical model was used to predict the number of visitors to the Stockholm Health Care Guide based on the number of visitors to the hospitals.

The research shows that there is a strong correlation between website visits and hospital pressure. According to the scientists, the model that has been drawn up can be used to predict the pressure in the emergency room. It is unclear, however, to what extent the relationship found is applicable in other countries. The model has not been externally validated. In addition, it was a retrospective study in which only correlations can be demonstrated with the established relationships and no causality.